Hormuz Tensions Fuel Oil Price Surge
Oil prices continued to rise on Monday as tensions between the US and Iran escalated in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping route through which about a fifth of global oil supply passes.
The latest developments include attacks by both sides on commercial vessels, with US forces striking three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island, close to Iran's major oil export hub. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps navy said it had targeted three oil tankers travelling through unauthorized routes in the Strait of Hormuz, along with three additional US vessels elsewhere.
Analysts warn that a prolonged standoff could keep supplies constrained for months. ANZ analysts expect exports to remain constrained through the rest of 2026, with a gradual reopening late in the fourth quarter. A return to pre-war throughput is not expected until late in the first quarter or early in the second quarter of 2027.