Hormuz Tensions Send Oil Prices Soaring as Shipping Lane Picture Unclear

The Strait of Hormuz crisis is unfolding in familiar patterns, with crude oil prices leading the way. The incident involves conflicting diplomatic signals, a vessel struck by an unknown projectile, and slowed transits. Historically, war-risk premia and tanker rates move ahead of actual supply loss, bleeding out only when physical flows normalize.

Energy equities are green, while front-end and belly yields track crude prices rather than growth data. Gold's behavior is split between haven demand and a firmer dollar. The energy department's SPR commentary has historically capped the tail at the margin.

The key indicators to watch include further UKMTO advisories, coalition escort or insurance withdrawal announcements, transit counts, and whether the ceasefire extension hardens into text. The domestic calendar, including UK jobs, ZEW, and FOMC minutes, will likely be overshadowed by the geopolitical tape until the shipping lane picture clarifies.