Hormuz Traffic Spike Masks Ongoing Oil Export Crisis

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has seen a significant increase in recent weeks, rising by nearly 400% over two weeks to around 200 ships last week. However, this uptick in traffic does not necessarily translate to an improvement in Iran's oil exports, as shipments have almost completely stopped despite the increased capacity.

According to Iran's central bank governor, the country's crude exports have 'virtually stopped,' and loaded Iranian vessels are reportedly stuck inside the Gulf. In contrast, empty tankers are struggling to enter the area, leading to a significant increase in the cost of oil cargoes.

In terms of technical analysis, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) has broken through its descending trendline, retesting the 4H 50-EMA band after the Stochastic RSI moved back into oversold territory. If the 50-EMA band continues to act as support and WTI breaks through the 85.95-87.84 neckline area, the measured move could point towards a price of around $100.