Houthi Advance Tightens Squeeze on Saudi Oil Exports Amid Pipeline Shutdown

The pressure on Saudi Arabia's oil export routes has increased significantly over the weekend due to a Houthi advance up Yemen's Red Sea coast and drones from Iraq striking the country's main oil pipeline. The East-West pipeline, which carries crude from Saudi Arabia's eastern fields to its Red Sea coast, was temporarily shut down after it was targeted by several drones launched from Iraq.

The pipeline shutdown is particularly concerning as Saudi Arabia's crude output has already reached its lowest rate in over three decades. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), August supply dropped 2.3 million barrels per day (mb/d) from July and stands at 6 mn bbl / d, the lowest level in over 30 years.

The Houthi advance up Yemen's Red Sea coast also poses a significant threat to Saudi oil exports as it puts the group within roughly 50 km of the Bab Al Mandab strait. The Houthis have already expanded their control over Yemen's Red Sea coast, reaching strategic islands and coastal towns, including Perim and Hanish, Mocha, and Dhubab.

According to Ahmed Al Zurqa, a political analyst, the Houthi advance serves multiple objectives, including recovering lost territory, defeating rival forces, and gaining leverage against the Yemeni government. The group's ultimate goal is to raise the cost of confrontation for Riyadh and threaten its Red Sea export corridor through Yanbu.