HSBC Raises 2026 Brent Forecast Amid Strait of Hormuz Crisis
HSBC has raised its forecast for Brent Crude oil in 2026 to $90 per barrel, up from an earlier prediction of $80. The bank cites the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz as a major factor behind the revised estimate.
According to Kim Fustier, an analyst at HSBC, oil markets are unlikely to balance until around mid-2027. In the short term, the bank expects a delicate arrangement between the US and Iran to continue, creating uncertainty around shipping security and insurance.
The forecast suggests that crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz will increase to 8 million barrels per day by the end of 2026, up from 6 million bpd currently. However, this figure is below other estimates, which put current flows at around 10 million bpd.
HSBC's base case envisions a gradual increase in Hormuz oil flows to 9.5 million bpd by mid-2027, which would keep oil markets tight for nearly another year. The bank also warns that if diplomacy collapses and flows remain constrained, Brent Crude could spike to $120 per barrel.