HSBC Raises Brent Crude Forecast to $90 as Hormuz Tensions Persist

HSBC has raised its forecast for Brent Crude oil prices in 2026 to $90 per barrel, citing ongoing tensions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The bank's analyst, Kim Fustier, warns that oil markets will remain tight until at least mid-2027, as flows through the chokepoint are expected to rise gradually but not meet pre-war levels.

According to HSBC, even if current estimates of 10 million barrels per day (bpd) through Hormuz prove correct, this is still half the pre-war level of 19-20 million bpd.

The bank's base-case scenario assumes a fragile understanding between the US and Iran will hold, but remain susceptible to breakdowns and uncertainties.