IEA Cuts 2026 Oil Demand Forecast Amid Ongoing Disruptions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, projecting a decline of 1.6 million barrels per day (b/d). This is 510,000 b/d more than previously estimated, due to ongoing disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz and persistently high fuel prices.
Despite this downward revision, the IEA suggests that reported delivery data indicate the worst may be behind us. The agency notes that May's 5.8 million b/d year-on-year decline likely marked the nadir, with June showing an improvement in demand down by 4.8 million b/d from the same period last year.
The IEA forecasts a narrowing of the annual decline in demand from 4.9 million b/d in the second quarter of 2026 to 2.8 million b/d in the third quarter, before returning to growth in the fourth quarter.