IEA Cuts Oil Projections as Middle East Tensions Escalate

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its oil supply and demand projections for this year, citing ongoing conflicts in the Middle East as a key factor. The agency now expects global oil supply to contract by 5.7 million barrels per day in 2026, down from 2025 levels.

This represents a 6% decline compared to last year's output, and is a more significant drop than previously estimated in August, when the IEA predicted a 4% annual decline.

On the demand side, the agency has also cut its projections, expecting consumption to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day this year, a larger drop than the 1.6 million bpd decline it had outlined in August.