IEA Cuts Oil Supply Forecast Amid Middle East Disruptions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has sharply cut its forecast for global oil supply in 2026 due to disruptions caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continued hostilities in the Middle East.
In its latest report, the IEA said that global oil supply is expected to decline by 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd), or around 4%, this year compared to its previous forecast of a 3.7 million bpd decline in July.
The agency cited the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, US sanctions on Iranian oil exports, attacks in the Bab al-Mandab Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports as key factors contributing to the decline.
The IEA expects an oil-market deficit of 1.8 million bpd during July-September, a 1 million bpd downward revision from its July forecast.