IEA Cuts Russia Oil Output Forecast Amid Ongoing Ukrainian Drone Attacks

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has reduced its forecast for Russia's oil production for the second consecutive month. The agency cited Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure and a sustained decline in crude output as the reasons for the downgrade.

Russia is the world's third-largest oil producer, and any significant reduction in its output would impact global supply balances. The IEA lowered its forecast for Russian crude production by 125,000 barrels per day to 8.7 million bpd in 2026 and cut its 2027 forecast by 235,000 bpd to an average of 8.6 million bpd.

Russian oil production fell by 200,000 bpd in August from July to 8.36 million bpd, according to the IEA. This is 940,000 bpd below Russia's January peak of 9.3 million bpd and 695,000 bpd below production a year earlier.

The IEA's downgrade follows a government draft forecast that showed Russia had reduced its own outlook for oil production this year to a 17-year low. The agency's revisions indicate that the disruption is becoming significant enough to alter expectations for Russia's production several years ahead.