IEA Cuts Russian Oil Output Forecasts Amid Ukraine Conflict
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded its forecast for Russia's oil production due to ongoing Ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrastructure. The agency cited a sharp decline in crude output, with Russia's oil production dropping by 940,000 barrels per day from January 2026 peak levels.
The IEA revised downward the outlook for Russia's crude output to 8.7 million bpd in 2026 and 8.6 million bpd in 2027. The agency also noted that Russia had already downgraded its oil output forecast for this year to a 17-year low.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) reported that Russia's oil production declined by 160,000 barrels per day in August from July levels, further supporting the IEA's revised forecast. The conflict with Ukraine has had a significant impact on Russia's energy sector, leading to declining output and exports.