IEA Cuts Russia's Oil Refining Forecast Amid Ongoing Drone Strikes and Sanctions
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for Russian oil refining capacity over the next 18 months, citing ongoing challenges due to Ukrainian drone strikes and sanctions. The agency now estimates that Russia's oil refining industry will operate at approximately 4 million barrels per day, a 30% decrease from pre-invasion levels.
The IEA notes that longer lead times for sourcing replacement parts, combined with the approach of colder weather, could further exacerbate the stress on the Russian system. The agency also points out that Ukrainian forces are using multiple drone waves against single sites, overwhelming protective netting and air defenses, making repairs even more difficult.
The sanctions against Russia's energy sector are restricting its access to replacement equipment, adding to the challenges faced by the industry. As a result, the IEA has cut its forecast for Russian oil supply in 2026 by 125,000 barrels per day, to 8.7 million barrels per day.