IEA Downgrades Russian Oil Production Forecast Amid Ukraine Strikes
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its forecast for Russian oil production downward in response to Ukrainian drone strikes on critical energy infrastructure.
According to Reuters, the agency cut its crude output forecast for Russia by 125,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 8.7 million bpd for 2026 and reduced the 2027 projection by 235,000 bpd to an expected average of 8.6 million bpd.
The IEA reported that Russian oil production fell by 200,000 bpd in August compared to July, landing at 8.36 million bpd, marking a significant drop from the January peak of 9.3 million bpd and sitting 695,000 bpd below levels recorded a year ago.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) also confirmed the downward trend, estimating that Russian production dropped by 160,000 bpd in August to 8.718 million bpd.