IEA Lowers Oil Supply Forecast Amid Prolonged Middle East Disruptions

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised its global oil supply forecast due to prolonged Middle East disruptions. According to the IEA's September Oil Market Report, global oil supply is expected to fall by 5.7 million barrels a day in 2026 as Gulf production recovery is delayed until next year.

The agency now forecasts world oil supply to average 100.7 MMbpd this year, which is 1.3 MMbpd below its previous forecast. Global production fell 1.6 MMbpd month-over-month in August to 100.1 MMbpd, with over 10 MMbpd of Gulf production remaining shut in due to heightened security risks.

The IEA expects supply to rebound by 8 MMbpd in 2027. Outside OPEC+, the agency forecasts the 'Americas Quintet' will dominate production growth, adding 1.4 MMbpd in 2026 and another 1 MMbpd next year.