IEA Predicts Oil Supply Surplus, Weakening Prices in 2027

The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil supply will rise by 8.3 million barrels per day to 110.3 million in 2027, surpassing demand growth of 2.4 million barrels per day. This could lead to a surplus, pressuring oil prices.

According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), Brent crude will average around $87 per barrel in 2026 before falling to $69 in 2027 as Gulf crude production recovers near pre-conflict averages.

The current spot price of Brent is around $96 per barrel, which is $27 above the EIA's 2027 forecast. This means that projects reaching production before prices decline can capture higher prices and recover capital sooner.