IEA Predicts Record Oil Shortfall This Quarter

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has significantly revised its global oil supply forecast for this year, predicting a massive shortfall of 1.8 million barrels per day in the third quarter.

This is down from a previously expected deficit of just 0.8 million bpd and marks the deepest quarterly oil deficit since Q4 2021.

The IEA blames the Hormuz shutdown, US blockade of Iranian exports, attacks on the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports for keeping global supply below demand.

Additionally, high prices and restricted supplies of refined fuels are forcing consumers to cut consumption, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, leading to a 1.6 million bpd decline in global oil demand this year.