IEA Slashes Global Oil Supply Forecast to 102 Million Barrels

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has downgraded its forecast for global oil supply in 2026, predicting a decline of 4.3 million barrels per day.

This represents a 4% drop from current levels and would leave worldwide supply at 102.02 million bpd, the IEA's lowest forecast for the year.

The agency attributes this decrease to renewed fighting in the Middle East, which has disrupted exports through key routes such as the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional production remains 8.3 million bpd below pre-war levels, while attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports have added to the shortfall.