IEA Warns of Critical Mineral Supply Gaps Amid Rising Demand

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global demand for critical minerals will surge through 2040, driven by the expansion of electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy, and electricity networks.

Critical minerals such as copper, lithium, nickel, rare earth, and graphite are expected to see significant growth in demand. Copper demand is set to grow by more than 25%, adding around 7 million tonnes by 2040, while lithium demand could triple and graphite demand double.

The IEA estimates that meeting future demand will require more than $750 billion in investment in mining and refining between now and 2040 under the Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS). Copper is expected to account for the largest share of investment at about $310 billion, followed by nickel at $280 billion.

Despite a growing pipeline of mining projects, supply gaps for copper and lithium could remain through 2035. The agency also warns that refining and downstream processing remain highly concentrated, with China accounting for nearly half of global copper refining and more than 90% of battery-grade graphite production.