IEA Warns of Worsening Oil Supply Shortage in 2026
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned of an impending oil supply shortage that is expected to worsen in 2026. According to the agency, global oil supply is forecasted to fall by 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd), or approximately 6 percent, due to ongoing conflicts and disruptions in the Middle East.
The conflict has pushed crude prices up to around $110 a barrel this week, while refined fuel prices have surged amid disruptions to refineries. Global oil inventories dropped by 3.1 million bpd in August, reaching their lowest level since 2023.
OPEC expects oil demand to increase by 380,000 bpd in 2026, but the IEA forecasts a more significant rise of 2.6 million bpd in 2027. The agency emphasized that shrinking stocks and limited refining capacity make resolving these conflicts increasingly urgent.