India Ends Wheat Export Ban Amid Record Harvest, Export Volumes Limited
The Indian government has lifted its four-year ban on wheat and flour exports, effective August 24, 2026. This decision shifts the classification of wheat, maida, and semolina from 'Prohibited' to 'Free', allowing farmers to tap into international markets.
The move is linked to a record-breaking agricultural output, with India producing 120.65 million tonnes of wheat in the 2025-26 season. This has led to substantial government buffer stocks held by the Food Corporation of India, currently exceeding 50 million tonnes.
However, industry analysts caution that Indian wheat faces a stiff competitive disadvantage on the global stage due to high domestic costs and logistics. Free-on-board prices at major exit points like Kandla port are trading at approximately $325 per tonne, higher than international competitors such as Russia and Australia.
The government's decision may lead to limited export volumes, mainly focused on neighboring regions like Nepal, Bhutan, and parts of Bangladesh where logistical proximity offers a natural cost advantage. Weather patterns remain a significant variable, with persistent El Nino concerns potentially impacting the upcoming rabi season.