India Eyes $1.5 Billion Wheat Export Opportunity Amid Global Uncertainty

India's wheat export potential is on the rise as the country's record production and surplus stocks have created room to expand exports while meeting domestic food security needs, according to a report by ASSOCHAM. The report estimates that India can unlock a wheat export opportunity of more than USD 1.5 billion.

The gradual reopening of exports in 2026 after restrictions were maintained for nearly four years has given India a better footing in the international market. The government has also shifted the export policy for specified wheat varieties, wheat flour, and related products from 'Prohibited' to 'Free', covering wheat, durum wheat, atta, maida, and semolina/rava.

India produced a record 120.7 million tonnes (MMT) of wheat in 2025-26, retaining its position as the world's second-largest wheat producer. Wheat stocks in the central pool stood at 51.3 MMT as of May 28, 2026, against the prescribed buffer norm of 27.58 MMT for July 1.

India's proximity to South Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East means shorter shipping distances and potentially lower freight costs than supplies from distant exporters. The report notes that India's current export volume remains small compared with the surplus its production can support, leaving 'considerable scope to increase wheat exports in the coming years'.