India Poised to Capitalize on Global Wheat Market Disruptions
India has a significant opportunity to expand its wheat exports, according to a study by ASSOCHAM. The global wheat market is experiencing disruptions due to weather conditions and geopolitical tensions, creating uncertainty for major producers.
The USDA projects that global wheat production will decline from 844 million tonnes in 2025-26 to around 819 mt in 2026-27. India's record wheat production of 121 mt against domestic consumption of around 111 mt provides a comfortable supply position and supports exports.
India has a strong price advantage, with its FY2026-27 wheat MSP at $268 per tonne compared to an international wheat price of about $303 per tonne in May 2026. This nearly $35 per tonne difference gives Indian wheat room to compete globally while farmers benefit from assured MSP-based returns.
India has shifted the export policy for specified wheat varieties, wheat flour, and related products from 'Prohibited' to 'Free', providing greater market access for Indian wheat and wheat-based products. The study suggests that India's geographical location offers shorter shipping distances and lower freight costs to major importing countries in South Asia, Southeast Asia, and West Asia.