India Soybean Production Dives Amid Erratic Monsoons and Crop Shifts
India's soybean production is projected to drop significantly due to erratic monsoon weather and farmer shifts to cotton and corn. The USDA report forecasts a harvested area of 10.5 million hectares, down from earlier estimates, resulting in a total production of 9.6 million metric tons (MMT). This decline is attributed to an El Niño-influenced delayed monsoon onset, which particularly affected key growing areas in Maharashtra.
The unpredictable climate has led many farmers to divert land to more lucrative crops like cotton and corn. The expansion of corn acreage was incentivized by higher market returns and government support linked to national ethanol blending targets. As a result, local soybean crush volumes are expected to fall 6 percent to 8.7 MMT.
The tight domestic oilseed supply has triggered a surge in feed expenses, with soymeal prices increasing by more than 45 percent. Poultry producers have responded by cutting output by approximately 20 percent to manage soaring operational costs. India's soybean meal export competitiveness has been further crippled, causing outbound shipments to drop to a four-year low.