India Tightens Sugar-to-Ethanol Trade-off as Brazil Raises Fuel Blend

The International Sugar Organization (ISO) has adjusted its forecast for global sugar production and ethanol fuel blend, citing structural trade-offs between food consumption and fuel production in India.

India's sugarcane harvest was deemed insufficient, leading to wholesale prices reaching levels unseen in several years. In response, the government opened a duty-free raw sugar import window in August 2026, limited in time, ahead of a period of heavy festive consumption.

This shift toward grain-based ethanol, with corn and surplus rice taking on a growing role, reflects Indian authorities' pursuit of supply security less dependent on the vagaries of the cane harvest. However, this raises questions about the availability and cost of these alternative grains over the medium term.