India's Electric Vehicle Surge Triggers Critical Mineral Supply Chain Worries

India's transition to electric mobility is set to trigger a massive surge in demand for critical minerals, raising concerns about supply chain pressures. Unlike Europe and the US, where car electrification drives adoption, India's transport sector is diverse, with two-wheelers, auto-rickshaws, buses, trains, and passenger cars each having different electrification paths.

As millions of electric vehicles enter Indian roads over the coming decades, demand for lithium, copper, nickel, and cobalt is expected to rise exponentially. Lithium demand could more than double, copper demand could approach three times its production benchmark, while nickel demand could reach two-and-a-half times its global production level.

The electrification journey will not place uniform pressure on mineral supply chains due to the diversified pattern of vehicle ownership in India. The first phase is expected to be driven by rapid electrification of two-wheelers and auto-rickshaws, which dominate everyday mobility. As these markets mature, growth will increasingly come from replacing older vehicles rather than expanding the overall fleet.