Industrial Metal Prices Surge Due to Tariffs, Geopolitics
The prices of industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, and steel are highly influenced by various factors including tariffs, capital expenditures, and geopolitics. According to J.P. Morgan Global Research, copper prices are expected to reach $14,800 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of this year, driven by sulfur shortages, tight mine supply, an industrial boom, and the threat of U.S. tariffs.
The price of aluminum is forecasted to reach $3,800 per metric ton in the third quarter of 2026 and $3,700 in the fourth quarter, based on supply disruptions arising from the Middle East conflict and possible shifts in Chinese export policy. The Middle East conflict has already affected the supply of sulfur and sulfuric acid used for copper leaching.
Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, believes that the medium-term environment for copper remains supportive due to continued tight mine supply, ongoing weak production, and structurally supported demand trends around electrification tied to data center capex. The market is waiting for an announcement from the Trump Administration regarding Section 232 duties on copper imports.