Iran Conflict Disrupts Oil Supplies, Forecasting 600k Daily Shortfalls Through 2027
The US government has forecasted that oil supply disruptions from the ongoing conflict with Iran will average around 600,000 barrels per day through the end of 2027. This projection reflects a slow and uneven recovery from the chaos caused by US and Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian facilities in late February and early March.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for oil shipments, saw flows collapse to near zero during the conflict's worst moments. The disruption had a significant impact on global inventories, with stocks falling by 4.2 million barrels per day during the second quarter of 2026.
The International Energy Agency described the crisis as unprecedented, surpassing previous disruptions such as the Gulf War and the Iranian Revolution. Brent crude has recently averaged between $78 and $85 per barrel, with a war premium becoming a semi-permanent feature of oil pricing.