Iran Edges Closer to Controlling Oil-Rich Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical shipping lanes, carrying about a fifth of global oil supplies through its narrow waters. After five months of war with the United States, Iran has made significant concessions to secure control over the strait, according to a senior Iranian source and two regional officials.

A draft agreement between Iran and Oman would allow Tehran to charge fees of between 5-7% on cargo passing through the strait. In contrast, Oman has proposed a fee of around 3%, while the US wants no payment at all. The US has insisted that it will not accept Iranian control over the waterway.

Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi stated that the arrangement aims to have commercial ships pass through Iranian territorial waters on both incoming and outgoing legs, raising concerns about who would inspect ships and whether fees are voluntary. The deal is likely dependent on Washington lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports.

The Strait's geography has proven to be a significant advantage for Iran, with coastal missile batteries, drones, fast attack boats, and midget submarines able to reach every meter of the strait. Analyst Mark Cancian noted that 'a blocked Strait is a naval failure', highlighting the US Navy's limited capabilities in mine warfare and the lack of adequate replacements.

The comparison between the current situation and the 1915 Dardanelles campaign, where Allied forces attempted to force their way through Ottoman mines but suffered significant losses, is already circulating among strategists. While some argue that the analogy is premature, others see it as a cautionary tale about underestimating an adversary.

Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that the waterway will never return to its pre-war status, and Brent crude sat near $79 a barrel on August 6th. The precedent of a middle power controlling a key chokepoint has significant implications for global energy security and trade.