Iran Oil Exports Plummet to Half Amid US Naval Blockade

China's imports of Iranian oil have dropped significantly due to the US naval blockade of Iran. According to Reuters, citing unnamed sources, the number of Iranian oil cargoes on offer for delivery to the Chinese market in September and October has fallen compared with July and August. This decline is attributed to oil that was on ships at sea being sold to other buyers.

Iranian oil exports have been falling since mid-July, when the largest supertankers carrying Iranian oil stopped sailing through the Strait of Hormuz. However, it's difficult to determine how many tankers pass through Hormuz because many turn off their transponders - devices for identifying and tracking ships.

According to Kpler, a company that deals with this data, the amount of Iranian crude oil in floating storage facilities outside the US blockade zone fell from 105 million barrels to around 80 million even before the US renewed the full blockade. Two Reuters sources estimate that only about 30 million barrels of Iranian crude oil remain in Asian waters, half the usual amount.

Kpler's senior crude oil analyst Muju Xu believes there are 40 million barrels of Iranian oil on ships in Malaysian waters east of Singapore, most of which has already been promised to buyers. This suggests that buyers may not be able to find any shipments from Iran available for delivery after September because no loaded Iranian tanker has been able to break through the US blockade so far.