Iran War Escalation: Strait of Hormuz Balance Shifts Amid Ongoing Conflict

The US has made some progress in loosening Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, but the costly war between the two countries is far from over. In recent weeks, the balance of power has shifted with a US blockade virtually halting Iran's oil exports and increasing non-Iranian oil exports through alternative routes.

According to Homayoun Falakshahi, an oil expert at Kpler, a global trade monitor, Iran's oil exports have dropped from 1.85 million barrels a day last spring to around 255,000 in August. Meanwhile, non-Iranian oil exports rose from 300,000 barrels a day at the height of the war to 8.4 million in September.

However, this increased flow depends on a major US deployment in the strait that has strained the military's resources. The unpopular war has already cost US taxpayers more than $37.5 billion and left 18 US service members dead.

Tehran could escalate in other ways, with Iranian-backed Houthis launching attacks on Saudi oil facilities this week. The Houthis have damaged Saudi Arabia's Jizan refinery, a large supplier of diesel and jet fuel to Europe, and the volume of Saudi oil passing through the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint leading to the Red Sea and the Suez Canal has plunged.

Mona Yacoubian, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said 'Unfortunately, the US is not winning in the war with Iran despite its limited success in loosening Iran's grip over the strait and the devastating impact on Iran's economy.'