Iran War Oil Disruptions Continue Through 2027

The ongoing conflict between the US and Iran has led to significant disruptions in oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy markets.

According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook, the average daily oil shipments via the strait have decreased from 21.6 million barrels per day in the last quarter of 2025 to around 4.9 million barrels per day in the second quarter of this year.

This reduction is attributed to attacks on Iran by the US and Israel, which has resulted in a significant decline in oil production and trade flows.

The agency estimates that the volume of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz remains difficult to pin down in real-time due to vessels going dark and obscuring shipping activity.

The Energy Secretary Chris Wright mentioned that about 9 million barrels of oil a day exited the strait on average over the past week.

The report also assumes that recent threats to vessels carrying Saudi Arabian crude through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait have not resulted in additional production shut-ins, and if this assumption holds, most production and trade flows are expected to return to pre-war levels by early 2027.