Iran's Endgame Uncertain as Economic Pressure Mounts and Leverage in the Strait of Hormuz Remains
After six months of conflict sparked by US and Israeli air strikes against Iran, there's still no clear end to the confrontation. The country's military capabilities have suffered major damage, but it retains leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.
Experts interviewed by RFE/RL from across Washington's policy spectrum see the next phase being shaped by four questions: how long Iran can withstand economic pressure, whether diplomacy can turn military gains into a durable settlement, what happens to Hormuz, and whether Russia and China help Tehran rebuild.
Economic Onslaught
Retired Vice Admiral Robert Harward describes the situation as a 'steady state', but argues that time is ticking for Tehran. He believes sustained economic pressure could eventually become an internal threat to the Iranian government, particularly if they struggle to pay the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Basij militia, and other state institutions.
China's economic relationship with Iran is significant, with about 80 percent of Iran's exported oil going to China. However, Elaine Dezenski from the Center on Economic and Financial Power notes that this doesn't make it an alliance in the traditional sense.
The issue has a longer-term financial dimension, as Iranian oil sales in yuan and payment through systems outside the US dollar network can strengthen alternative financial infrastructure.