Iran's Oil Export Blockade Could Last Up to Two Months Without Production Cuts

The US blockade on Iranian oil exports has sparked concerns about global supply and prices. Analysts estimate that Iran can withstand a complete halt in oil exports for up to two months before being forced to curb production.

Iran's available onshore crude storage capacity is estimated at around 90 million barrels, out of a total capacity of roughly 122 million barrels. This would allow the country to maintain current production levels of around 3.5 million barrels per day (bpd) for approximately two months without exports.

FGE NextantECA estimates that Iran could extend this period to three months with a modest 500,000 bpd production cut. However, Energy Aspects assumes significantly lower available onshore storage capacity of about 30 million barrels, which would only last for around 16 days at current export levels.

Richard Bronze from Energy Aspects warned that if the blockade continues into May, Iranian output would need to be reduced substantially.