Iran's Oil Exports Stall as US Blockade Takes Hold

Iran's oil exports have stalled for over seven weeks due to a US naval blockade. The blockade, reinstated on July 14 as part of a six-month conflict, has stopped fresh crude cargoes from reaching China, Tehran's only major remaining oil customer.

The current situation is unprecedented, with no Iranian crude cargoes successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz to China since mid-July. Even during the height of maximum-pressure sanctions in 2019-20, some Iranian crude cleared the strait every month.

According to estimates, Iran loaded only about 220,000 to 255,000 barrels per day of crude oil and condensate in August, down from roughly 740,000 bpd in July and about 2 million bpd in March. The collapse in exports is draining one of Iran's main sources of foreign-currency income.

Kpler analyst Homayoun Falakshahi warned that the situation could force Tehran to finance spending by printing money, risking even higher inflation, which is already estimated at nearly 70 percent this year, the world's third-highest after Venezuela and Sudan.