Iran's Oil Revenue May Not Be Its Weakest Link

The Trump administration believes that cutting off Iran's oil revenue will weaken its government and give Washington more leverage in negotiations. However, experts argue that this approach may not be effective in toppling the regime.

Azakhstan, Angola, and Equatorial Guinea have all experienced declining oil revenues for decades without experiencing significant instability or regime change. The key to an authoritarian government's survival lies not in its revenue, but in how dependent its institutions are on that revenue.

Oil income enables authoritarian governments to maintain their power by rewarding political elites and security forces. If oil revenue falls, these arrangements may be disrupted, leading to potential defections and instability. However, leaders can also rely on alternative sources of loyalty, such as nationalism, military victories, and ethnic connections.

Iran's case is similar to that of Azerbaijan and Equatorial Guinea. The Aliyev government in Azerbaijan has maintained its power despite declining oil production by leveraging its president's personal legacy, bolstering nationalism through the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and securing loyalty through ethnic ties.