IRGC Navy Commander Vows to Block Hormuz Strait Oil Shipments

The Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Navy has announced that no oil will be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Mehr News. This threat is a recurring feature of periods of Iranian escalation, but it's worth noting that even at the height of previous confrontations, the IRGC has not executed a full closure of the strait.

This would have severe consequences for Iran itself, as it would cut off its own crude exports and potentially invite a direct military response. Historically, initial risk premiums in crude and freight have been triggered by such threats, but these premiums tend to fade if tanker traffic through the strait continues uninterrupted.

The key indicators of whether this threat will be matched with action are not verbal declarations, but rather physical actions such as harassment or seizure of tankers, mining activity, AIS track disruptions, and war-risk insurance premia for Gulf transits.