J.P. Morgan Cuts Second-Half Brent Crude Price Forecast

J.P. Morgan has lowered its second-half 2026 Brent crude oil price forecast due to lower-than-expected OECD commercial inventory draws and reduced demand for oil.

The bank expects Brent to average $86 per barrel in the third quarter, $80 in the last quarter, and exit 2026 at $78, according to a research note.

J.P. Morgan attributes the decrease in its forecast to OECD commercial inventories draws coming in below expectations, as well as larger-than-expected demand losses, implying less upward pressure on oil prices.

The bank noted that the market has rebalanced through a different mix of demand losses and inventory withdrawals than initially assumed.