Jet Fuel Price Surge Blows Hole in US Airline Profit Forecasts

US airlines have seen their profit forecasts blow up in smoke due to a fresh spike in jet fuel prices. The July price surge has left management teams scrambling to adjust earnings estimates for the year, just days before reporting second-quarter results.

The Middle East crisis has caused extreme volatility in crude oil and consequently, jet fuel prices. This has turned earnings projections into a kind of guesswork, depending on where jet fuel prices are on a given day.

For five months, this has mostly depended on which oil chokepoint in the Middle East is currently closed to traffic, or if the US Administration is trying to talk down oil prices.

The events of the past few months have rattled the earnings outlooks at all major US airlines. Their fuel costs have spiked and upset strong demand and revenue figures.

United Airlines expects nearly $6 billion in added fuel expense for full-year 2026 compared to the expectation at the start of the year. American Airlines has seen its fuel expense jump by over $2.2 billion, or 83% from a year earlier.