JPMorgan Trims Gold Forecast Amid Slowing Official Buying

J.P. Morgan Global Research has reduced its gold price forecast for this year, citing a slowdown in official buying and uncertainty over future Fed policy.

The bank now expects gold to average $4,873 per ounce in Q1 2026, down from an earlier projection of $5,243. It also sees the metal averaging around $6,000 per ounce in Q4 2026, down from $6,263 previously.

The revised forecast still implies a significant step-up from last year's average price of $3,440 per ounce, with gold expected to reach fresh highs by the end of this year. However, the pace of official buying that fueled the metal's climb may now be slowing, according to central bank data.

The World Gold Council notes that some official buying can escape the data, as central banks are not obliged to disclose purchases to the IMF. J.P. Morgan analyst Shearer thinks the standoff between Iran, Israel and the United States could weigh on gold in the near term, but longer-term worries about inflation and the erosion of purchasing power remain key motivations for investors to diversify into the metal.