Kerch Strait Conflict Threatens Global Food Crisis as Wheat Exports Hang in Balance
The ongoing conflict in the Kerch Strait region has raised concerns about a potential global food crisis. The escalation of strikes on ports, grain terminals, and cargo vessels across the Black Sea has surpassed previous disruptions, including those caused by the Russia-Ukraine war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Russia and Ukraine are responsible for over 25% of the world's wheat exports, with significant shares in corn, barley, and sunflower oil. The paralysis of export trade can have far-reaching consequences, including price increases for soybean and palm oil.
The interactions between different systems, wars (Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran) and weather (El Niño and European heatwaves), amplify the risks of a global food supply crisis. Policymakers must remain vigilant to mitigate these effects.