Keystone Revival Sparks Fears Over Canada's Energy Dependence

After years of controversy and legal battles, Keystone XL is back in the picture. In 2021, then-US President Joe Biden revoked the cross-border permit for the pipeline, effectively killing the project. However, a new development has breathed life into the idea: a presidential permit signed by US President Donald Trump, allowing Bridger Pipeline Expansion LLC to build and operate cross-border facilities at the Canada-U.S. border in Montana.

The new project is not exactly Keystone XL under the same name, but it could use some of the Canadian infrastructure and serve a similar purpose, moving more Alberta crude into the US system. On the Canadian side, South Bow Corp., the TC Energy spinoff that now owns Keystone-related assets, is evaluating a project called Prairie Connector.

This line would move crude from Hardisty, Alta., to the U.S. border, where Bridger's proposed route would run through Montana to Guernsey, Wyoming. From there, Canadian crude could be connected into the broader US pipeline network, which stretches through Cushing, Oklahoma, and eventually to the Gulf Coast, where many refineries can process heavy crude.

For Alberta, the appeal is clear, more pipeline space means fewer bottlenecks, more options for producers, and potentially stronger prices for Canadian oil. It could also help Canada present itself as a more reliable supplier to the US.