Labor Day as Grain Market Turning Point

For farmers and commodity traders alike, Labor Day marks an important milestone in the grain market. According to Farm Futures' Bruce Blythe, Senior Editor of Commodities, this holiday serves as a demarcation between summertime lows and subsequent harvest or postharvest rallies.

In recent years, including 2024-25, December corn has often established its summer low around August, only to rise significantly through the fall harvest or later. In 2025, for instance, December corn bottomed at $3.92 per bushel on Aug. 12 and rose as high as $4.43 by mid-November.

This pattern suggests that by late August, traders believe they have a handle on the crop size, and if it's large, this is factored into prices before combines start rolling. However, when crops are bigger than expected, bargain-hunting exporters and other buyers emerge before South American supplies become available early in the following year.

Looking at comparable years with high planted acreage (91 million acres or higher) and production (roughly 15 billion bushels or higher), Blythe notes that an average rally of about 61 cents, or 14%, from the August low to a harvest or postharvest peak is not out of the question.

While this summer has been volatile for grain markets, with December corn tumbling to a year-to-date low around $4.26 in late June and then rallying to a two-month high of $4.92 in late July, it seems unlikely that the June lows will be tested in August. Nevertheless, as Blythe cautions, 'you can't rule anything out.'