Larak Strikes Send Brent Crude Over $90 as Geopolitical Premium Persists
Larak strikes on August 31, 2026, pushed Brent crude prices above $90 per barrel after US forces struck two missile launchers on Larak Island and Iran attacked US forces in Jordan.
The estimated Gulf oil exports were at 15 to 16 million barrels per day, which is 7-8 million below prewar levels but 5-6 million above the March trough. This suggests that US escorts are helping restore lost flows.
However, ships traveling at night with transponders disabled do not appear on tracking sites, causing visible vessel counts to understate Gulf oil flows. The actual supply recovered more than what is visible from these counts.
The geopolitical premium in oil prices remains sustained due to the threat of Iran deploying sea mines in the Strait of Hormuz. This risk has been present since US forces cleared its international shipping lanes, and Iran can repeatedly deploy mines from anywhere along its shoreline.