LNG Prices Soar as US-Iran Conflict Escalates
The global LNG and natural gas prices have surged due to renewed hostilities between the US and Iran, leading to a prolonged conflict scenario. According to Kpler Insight, the Strait of Hormuz will remain severely constrained through the rest of the year, with traffic recovering in Q1 2027.
As a result, European TTF and Asian LNG prices have increased significantly in recent days as Europe and Asia compete for supply. The European TTF front-month price outlook is bullish, with Kpler Insight expecting European buyers to bid higher for Atlantic Basin LNG amid escalating tensions in the Middle East and the risk of a slight dip in near-term US LNG exports due to Tropical Storm Bertha.
The Asian LNG front-month price outlook is slightly bullish, although last week's rally already added a significant geopolitical premium. Kpler Insight's revised prolonged conflict Hormuz scenario further tightens the prompt balance through expectations of lower Qatari exports over the September-December period.