Metal Prices Driven by Tariffs, Capex, and Geopolitics: Expert

The prices of copper, aluminum, and steel are being driven by various factors, including tariffs, capex, and geopolitics. According to J.P. Morgan Global Research, the price of copper is expected to reach $14,800 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of this year, driven by sulfur shortages, tight mine supply, an industrial boom, and the threat of U.S. tariffs.

The price of aluminum has been forecasted to reach $3,800 per metric ton in the third quarter of 2026, and $3,700 in the fourth quarter, based on supply disruptions arising from the Middle East conflict and possible shifts in Chinese export policy. Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, believes that a material component of the rally in copper over the last six months is an embedded tariff uncertainty.

The price of steel remains highly region-dependent, with tariffs keeping prices elevated in the U.S. and EU, while China's property slump has driven prices down. The Strait of Hormuz closure has triggered freight volatility for the raw materials needed to make steel, including iron ore.