Middle East Conflict Reshapes Global Oil Power Landscape

The Middle East conflict has significantly altered the dynamics of the global oil market. Six months into the conflict, OPEC+’s share of global oil production has fallen from over 48% to around 40%, with its seven core members accounting for just one-quarter of global output.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is the primary cause of this decline. Traffic through this critical artery has plummeted, rendering OPEC+’s production increase plans ineffective.

This shift reflects a transfer of power within the oil market from producer alliances to physical supply chain constraints. Geopolitical risk has become the primary driver of price premiums, rather than production policy.