Middle East Conflict Reshapes Global Oil Power Landscape

As the Middle East conflict enters its sixth month, the global oil market has undergone a significant shift in power dynamics. OPEC+, once the dominant force, now struggles to influence pricing due to a decline in its share of global oil production.

The effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which is critical for exports from major producers like Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait, has led to a significant decrease in traffic through this artery. As a result, OPEC+'s six production-increase plans announced since March have largely remained on paper, failing to translate into actual export volumes.

The decline in OPEC+ market share also reflects a structural trend of rising output from non-OPEC+ producers. The alliance's coordination capabilities have been severely compromised following the UAE's withdrawal and internal disputes over quotas, and internal rifts continue to widen.