Middle East Crude Exports Still Below Pre-Conflict Levels Amid Claims of Recovery

The Middle East's crude oil exports have not yet recovered to pre-conflict levels despite claims from US Energy Secretary Chris Wright. According to data compiled by commodity analysts Kpler, Asia's imports of crude oil in August were down 14% from the average three months prior to the Iran conflict, which started on February 28.

Asia's top-importing continent was expected to see arrivals of 23.12 million barrels per day (bpd) in August, slightly down from July's 23.36 million bpd. This is still below levels seen before the US and Israeli attack on Iran, which led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

The major-importing country closest to the Middle East, India, saw its crude imports drop to 4.51 million bpd in August, down from 5.07 million bpd in July. Arrivals from the Middle East were estimated at 1.45 million bpd, just over half of the 2.88 million bpd average for the three months leading up to the conflict.

The import data challenges Wright's claims that flows through the Strait of Hormuz are rising and total oil exports from the Middle East are nearly back to pre-conflict levels. Kpler tracked exports of crude via the Strait of Hormuz at 2.3 million bpd in August, down from 4.49 million bpd in July and 15.82 million bpd in the three months leading up to the US and Israeli attacks on Iran.