Middle East Oil Output Remains Below Pre-Conflict Levels Through 2027
The Middle East oil output is expected to remain below pre-conflict levels in 2027, despite normalization of trade patterns by early next year.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), some Middle East oil producers will struggle to restore their production to pre-conflict levels due to disruptions caused by attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
The EIA estimated that around 5.5 million barrels per day of Middle East oil output was shut-in during July, which represents over 5% of global consumption.
Even if most Middle East oil output and global trade recover to pre-conflict levels by early 2027, about 600,000 barrels per day of production from the region will remain shut-in through the end of 2027.
The EIA has raised its oil price forecasts for both 2026 and 2027 due to the widening supply deficit, which is expected to average around 100.8 million barrels per day this year, about 1% below the forecast in the July outlook.