Middle East Oil Production Expected to Recover by 2027
The Middle East's oil production is expected to recover gradually through 2027, but will not return to pre-conflict levels before the second quarter of that year, according to a report from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).
The EIA's September 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook estimates that oil production in the region will rise as exports through the Strait of Hormuz increase and alternative routes are used more extensively.
However, some restrictions on oil exports from the region are expected to remain in place until the end of the year, with flows through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remaining limited and volatile.
The EIA reported that shut-in oil production in seven countries, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, rose to 6.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in August from 5 million bpd in July.